CrudeOil WTI & Brent
Complete technical and fundamental analysis of WTI and Brent crude oil — Strait of Hormuz blockade, OPEC+, CAD/USD correlation and outlook for Canadian traders. Updated April 13, 2026.
Crude Oil WTI & Brent
Technical Analysis Multi-Timeframe
In a major geopolitical crisis, technical levels become secondary — but they indicate support/resistance zones in case of de-escalation.
| TF | Trend | RSI | MACD | MM50 / MM200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journalier | Bullish spike — extreme volatility | 72 — overbought | Bullish — accelerating | WTI > MM50 > MM200 | Bullish geopolit. |
| Hebdomadaire | Recovery from week low ($87) | 60 — bullish territory | Strong positive | Explosive MM200 breakout | Bullish MT |
| Mensuel | Major trend reversal | 65 — positif | Bullish crossover | Prix > toutes MMs | Bullish LT |
WTI Key Levels
Brent Key Levels
Oil Market Fundamentals
📦 Global Supply — Hormuz Crisis
| Strait Transit d'Hormuz | ⛔ ~10% of normal (−17.8 Mb/d) |
| Gulf Shut-ins (April) | −9.1 Mb/d (EIA Apr. 2026) |
| OPEC+ Production | −7.9 Mb/d March (OPEC data) |
| US Production | 13.6 Mb/d — record (outside Hormuz) |
| SA Bypass (East-West) | ~3–5 Mb/d max (insufficient) |
| IEA Emergency Reserves | 400 Mb (~20 days of Hormuz flows) |
📊 OPEC+ — April 5, 2026 Decision
OPEC+ announced +206,000 b/d starting in May. Analysts call the move a "rounding error" against the 17.8 Mb/d shortfall. Saudi Arabia's ~3 Mb/d spare capacity is unusable if Hormuz stays closed.
🌍 Global Demand
| Global Consumption | ~105 Mb/d (EIA 2026) |
| 2026 Growth | +0.6 Mb/d (revised ↓ since crisis) |
| Asia (China + India) | Major supply shock |
| USA + Europe | Energy inflation → demand destruction |
| Supply/Demand Balance | Structural deficit 7–12 Mb/d ST |
🗺 Key Geopolitical Factors
| Iran — Blockade | Announced Apr. 13 — ports blocked |
| Saudi Arabia | E-W pipeline capacity restored |
| Russie | ~9.2 Mb/d — partially sanctioned |
| Risk Premium | ~$25–35/b (GS / EIA Apr. 2026) |
Analyst Consensus & Scenarios
| Institution | Brent 2026 | WTI 2026 | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA (STEO Apr. 2026) | Q2 peak ~$115/b → recovery | $103 avg. March 2026 | Hormuz gradually resumes H2 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | $71/b Q4 base → $93/b 2-month scenario | WTI $67/b Q4 2026 | Risk premium ~$25/b — surplus H2 if Hormuz reopens |
| J.P. Morgan | $60/b avg. 2026 | WTI $54/b avg. 2026 | Structural surplus — temporary spike |
| Standard Chartered | $140+ possible (UAE/SA shut-ins) | — | 4+ week prolongation scenario |
| Citi | $62/b moy. 2026 | — | Global surplus once Hormuz reopens |
* Forecasts before or after Iran revisions. Q2 2026: all institutions project $90–$115/b Brent. H2 2026: return toward $60–$80 if Hormuz normalises.
Hormuz closed 4+ weeks + additional UAE/Saudi shut-ins + tankers attacked → 12+ Mb/d deficit → $120–$140/b Brent (Standard Chartered). IEA reserves insufficient. Severe demand destruction.
Hormuz partially resumes within 3–4 weeks. IEA + SPR = buffer. WTI consolidates $90–$105. EIA: Brent peak Q2 ~$115/b then gradual return. CAD correlation supports the Canadian dollar.
Accord Iran rapide (< 2 semaines) + stocks élevés + surplus OPEC → retour rapide fondamentaux. JPMorgan : $60/b avg. 2026. IEA : surplus 3.8 Mb/j post-crise. WTI corrige violemment.
Factor Score — WTI Drivers · April 13, 2026
(▲ = bullish WTI · ▼ = bearish WTI)
The oil market is traversing on April 13 the greatest supply crisis since the 1973 embargo. The official US blockade of Iranian ports — announced this morning following the collapse of Pakistan negotiations — sent WTI to $105.62 (+9.3%) intraday before pulling back to $103.41 (+7.08%). The dynamic is clearly geopolitically driven, not fundamental: OECD inventories are elevated but physically inaccessible to Asian buyers who depend on Hormuz. The estimated 17.8 Mb/d shortfall (Rystad Energy) has no historical precedent, and alternatives (Saudi E-W Pipeline, SPR, IEA) can cover only 20–30% of this deficit. The base scenario (50%) foresees a partial Hormuz resumption within 3–4 weeks with WTI consolidating $85–$105. The bullish scenario (25%) sees $120–$130+ if the blockade extends. The bearish scenario (25%) implies a quick Iran deal returning WTI toward $70–$80. Canada impact: WTI > $100 is structurally positive for the CAD and Alberta's economy, but the resulting energy inflation complicates the Bank of Canada's task (decision April 29). Watch: Trump statements on Iran, next EIA inventory report (Wednesday), next OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting.
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